DEMAND FORECASTING ANALYSIS USING TIME SERIES METHODS AT AYAM LODHO PAK YUSUF RESTAURANT

Hidayatullah, Mochamad Cholik and Yudoko, Gatot (2016) DEMAND FORECASTING ANALYSIS USING TIME SERIES METHODS AT AYAM LODHO PAK YUSUF RESTAURANT. International Conference on Ethics of Business, Economics, and Social Science. pp. 375-381. ISSN 2528-617X

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Abstract

Food service industry have experienced tremendous growth in recent years. This growth indicated that demand from consumer have grown rapidly throughout the years. As one of the food service industry, Ayam Lodho Pak Yusuf (ALPY) restaurant encountered demand fluctuation as the impact of enormous demand from consumer. Growth of restaurant business draws uncertainty in consumer demand. Barely with subjective judgment, ALPY restaurant tried to forecast its daily demand. As the implication, stock out occurred frequently especially in the peak period. This research aims to construct proper demand forecasting which match with demand pattern at ALPY restaurant using time series methods. The result showed that simple exponential was favorable to forecast demand in weekdays as well as Christmas and New Year’s holidays period. Winter’s model. Winter’s model surpassed other methods to forecast demand in weekend period. While in the Eid holidays, Holt’s model became the best forecast method to use in this period. The selection of method based on the lowest mean absolute deviation (MAD), and mean absolute average of error (MAPE) produced by forecast methods in each period. . The measurement of tracking signal proposed to the manager in track and control the forecasting method. Keywords: Demand Forecasting, Restaurant, Time Series Methods, MAD, MAPE, tracking signal

Item Type: Article
Subjects: Prosiding > Proceeding of ICEBESS 2016
Divisions: Fakultas Ekonomi > Pendidikan Ekonomi
Depositing User: Admin Pendidikan Ekonomi FE
Date Deposited: 30 Sep 2016 00:21
Last Modified: 01 Feb 2019 01:53
URI: http://eprints.uny.ac.id/id/eprint/41808

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