Dania Siregar, . and M. Nur Aidi, . and I Made Sumertajaya, . (2015) PRICE OF SUGAR MODELING AND FORECASTING BASED ON STIMA MODEL AND GSTIMA MODEL. Proceeding of International Conference On Research, Implementation And Education Of Mathematics And Sciences 2015 (ICRIEMS 2015), Yogyakarta State University, 17-19 May 2015. ISSN 978-979-96880-8-8
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Abstract
STIMA (space-time integrated moving average) model is a special form of Vector IMA model that combines the interdependence of time and location that is known by space-time model. STIMA model requires the same parameter values for all locations, so Generalized-STIMA (GSTIMA) model is developed to overcome this problem. This paper compares the implementation of two models in forecasting the price of sugar in capital provinces in Sumatra Island, Indonesia. The first step is model building for each model. This step is similar to Box-Jenkins’s procedure. It is begun with the determination of temporal order by using AICC, while spatial order is restricted on order 1, the parameter estimation uses nonlinear least square method that are minimized by a Gauss-Newton algorithm, and then diagnostic checking of white noise errors. The normalization of cross-correlation between the locations at the appropriate time lag is used as space weight. The last, the implementation of forecast is evaluated by using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) where the error is defined as the differences between the actual value and the forecast value. The implementation of STIMA model is better compared with GSTIMA model in forecasting the price of sugar, although STIMA model produces the same parameters for each location. Key words: Space-time, STIMA, GSTIMA, Modeling, Forecasting.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | Prosiding > ICRIEMS 2015 > Mathematics & Mathematics Education |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam (FMIPA) > Pendidikan Matematika > Matematika |
| Depositing User: | Administrator |
| Date Deposited: | 15 Jul 2015 12:34 |
| Last Modified: | 15 Jul 2015 12:34 |
| URI: | http://eprints.uny.ac.id/id/eprint/23631 |
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