Widyawan Candra Yunianto, . and I Made Sumertajaya, . (2015) SIMULTANEOUS EQUATIONS MODELLING USING 2SLS AND 3SLS METHODS FOR FISHERMEN TERM OF TRADE OF INDONESIA. Proceeding of International Conference On Research, Implementation And Education Of Mathematics And Sciences 2015 (ICRIEMS 2015), Yogyakarta State University, 17-19 May 2015. ISSN 978-979-96880-8-8
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Abstract
After being set as one of national target, Fishermen Term of Trade (NTN) has become a vital indicator for fisherman's welfare. For years, NTN is calculated based on the price of goods and services both in terms of production, costs and household consumption. While cost of consumption is based on actual data which was collected every month, the production refers to the volume of the base year, so it is less accurate in describing the actual condition. At the other side, dealing with State Budget planning, government needs to know how macroeconomic assumptions affect fisherman welfare. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to find a comprehensive model that simultaneously links the production side and economic indicator to predict NTN. Another focus is to investigate which estimation method is better, between Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS), as a single equation approach, and Three Stage Least Squares (3SLS), as a system approach. The study of Indonesian data from January 2008 – December 2012 shows that there are significant simultaneous relationships among production, macro assumption and NTN. The 3SLS gives better parameter estimates since it has less Mean Square Error (MSE) with R-sq=62.75%. But, in order to fit the NTN, the 2SLS gives a better prediction. Keywords: fishermen terms of trade, simultaneous model, 2SLS, 3SLS
| Item Type: | Article |
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| Subjects: | Prosiding > ICRIEMS 2015 > Mathematics & Mathematics Education |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam (FMIPA) > Pendidikan Matematika > Pendidikan Matematika |
| Depositing User: | Administrator |
| Date Deposited: | 10 Jul 2015 20:51 |
| Last Modified: | 10 Jul 2015 20:51 |
| URI: | http://eprints.uny.ac.id/id/eprint/23321 |
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